What assumptions am I making?
Most property mistakes don’t begin with bad data.
They begin with unexamined assumptions. Thoughts like:
- “I expect interest rates to fall.”
- “I reckon this suburb will outperform.”
- “It won’t be time to renovate for several years.”
- “I’m pretty sure I can easily subdivide.”
- “I don’t think I’ll ever need to sell.”
Perhaps every one of those assumptions proves true.
But what if one doesn’t?
Experienced investors don’t eliminate assumptions. That’s impossible.
They identify them, test them, and ask a better question:
“If this assumption is wrong, what happens to my decision?”
A sound property decision still makes sense even if a few assumptions prove wrong.
That’s why I spend far more time examining the foundations beneath a purchase than trying to predict the future. Because Markets are uncertain and Human assumptions are often invisible.
The quality of your decision depends on bringing your assumptions into the light before you commit.
Sometimes the most valuable step isn’t a prediction.
It’s discovering the assumption you didn’t realise you were making.